presenting a risk-based model to reduce the probability of pre-mature mine closure in iran

mining activities play a major role in economy of each society so that any interruption in extraction flow of ore minerals could affect the amount of planned income anticipated from this sector. therefore, mining and excavation operations should be continued and needs to be appropriately managed throughout the mine’s life. normally, a mine closes when its deposit is totally mined but there are some reasons could lead to pre-mature mine closure such as environmental, social, economic and technical issues. risk-based approaches are considered powerful management tools to deal with such problems. the main objective of this research work is to develop a model to assess the mine closure risk as well as providing a safety factor for investment feasibility in mining projects. with this respect, a risk matrix is proposed and the probability and intensity of activities are determined using statistical analyses and multiple-criteria decisionmaking (mcdm) techniques. through the analyses, the type of minerals is also take into account (as divided into 6 groups) .afterwards, the risk matrix as well as risks of pre-mature closure of mines in each mineral category were calculated. the safety factor stems from the model is viewed as a proper measure to clarify the investment feasibility of the projects. this factor may impose extra investment but it is able to reduce the risk of pre-mature mine closure. 2398 pre-mature mine closure throughout iran were investigated and closure factor for each mine were calculated to verify the model. the risk factor of unplanned mine closure in iranian building stone mines and safety factor of investment were found to be 4.06% and 1.0406 respectively.